Macro Risk Aversion Dominates Tin Prices Under Pressure Supply-Demand Weakness Limits Rebound Space [SMM Tin Midday Review]

By the midday close, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (2511) weakened significantly, hitting an intraday low of 280,600 yuan/mt, down about 2.56% from the previous settlement price, and temporarily closed at 281,040 yuan/mt. Overnight, the LME tin 3M contract also came under pressure, settling at $35,350/mt, a drop of 3.99%. Although it rebounded slightly to around $35,600 during the Asian trading session today (up about 0.93%), it remained constrained overall by rising risk aversion on the macro front and fluctuations in the US dollar index.

In terms of driving factors, the short-term price volatility was mainly impacted by escalating US-China trade friction. Recent US threats to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods triggered a sell-off in global risk assets, putting base metals broadly under pressure. Although statements from both sides over the weekend showed slight moderation, market concerns over supply chain disruptions persisted. Combined with a pullback in the US dollar index, this failed to fully offset the pressure on tin prices from safe-haven demand. Spot trades were sluggish, and social inventory continued its buildup trend. Additionally, recent slight accumulation in LME tin inventories eased the risk of a short squeeze in the overseas market, weakening LME tin's leading effect on SHFE tin.

Looking ahead to the afternoon session, SHFE tin prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. From a macro perspective, close attention should be paid to the progress of US-China tariff negotiations and the release of US inflation data in the evening. Technically, the most-traded SHFE tin contract has broken below the support of its uptrend line. If it fails to reclaim the 282,000 yuan/mt level in the afternoon, short-term downward pressure may further intensify.